Introduction

The Russia–Ukraine conflict, which escalated into a full-scale war on February 24, 2022, is the largest military confrontation in Europe since World War II. Over 500,000 soldiers have been killed or injured on both sides (as per U.S. estimates, 2023), and millions of civilians displaced. Its impact extends far beyond Europe, shaking global political, economic, and security systems.

Key Causes of Russia–Ukraine Conflict

The conflict is rooted in Russia’s opposition to NATO’s expansion, Ukraine’s increasing alignment with the West, and longstanding Russian ambitions to reassert control over former Soviet territories. The annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the failure of the Minsk Agreements intensified hostilities, leading to the current war.

Recent Developments

'By 2024, the war has entered a stalemate with trench warfare dominating the eastern front. Russia controls about 18% of Ukrainian territory. Ukraine continues to receive military aid from NATO, while Russia deepens ties with China and Iran. The war has prompted Finland and Sweden to join NATO, reshaping European security dynamics.

Impact of Russia–Ukraine Conflict on Global Stability

• Energy Security Disruptions
  The Russia–Ukraine conflict disrupted global energy security, with Europe cutting reliance on Russian gas and oil prices soaring above $120 per barrel, leading to a worldwide push toward renewable energy and alternate suppliers.
• Global Food Crisis
  It triggered a major global food crisis, as both nations are key exporters of wheat, maize, and sunflower oil; this severely affected food-importing countries in Africa and West Asia.
• Geopolitical Realignment:
  The conflict triggered a geopolitical realignment marked by NATO’s revival, rising defence budgets, Cold War-style tensions, and the emergence of blocs like BRICS+ and SCO, challenging Western hegemony and reshaping global power equations.
• Polarization
  The conflict deepened the polarization of global powers, with a strengthened China–Russia axis opposing the U.S.–EU–NATO alliance. Simultaneously, countries like India, Turkey, and Brazil adopted multi-alignment strategies to protect national interests.
• Economic Slowdown and Inflation
  The war caused a global economic slowdown with inflation hitting record highs in both developed and developing economies, supply chains breaking down (notably in fertilizers and semiconductors), and financial markets facing volatility and stagflation risks.
• Humanitarian & Security Concerns
  Humanitarian and security concerns escalated due to mass displacement of over 10 million Ukrainians, rising cyber warfare threats, fears over nuclear safety, and the weakening credibility of global institutions like the United Nations Security Council.
• Impact on Global South: Countries like India faced challenges in maintaining strategic balance, ensuring energy and food security, and navigating diplomatic neutrality. There has been increased focus on South-South cooperation, trade in local currencies, and non-Western alliances (e.g., BRICS, SCO).
• India’s Stand
  India advocates peaceful resolution via diplomacy. It abstained from anti-Russia UN votes but called for respect for sovereignty. India’s focus has been on strategic autonomy, safeguarding energy needs, and evacuating Indian citizens safely through “Operation Ganga.”India also ramped up discounted oil imports from Russia, prioritizing energy security.

Conclusion

The conflict has shaken global order, exposed weaknesses in international peace mechanisms, and intensified the need for diplomacy, energy security, and strategic autonomy. For India and the Global South, it reinforces the importance of a balanced foreign policy in an uncertain world. It underscores the need for multilateral diplomacy, energy diversification, and a more equitable global order.